Theory of Municipal Passenger Traffic
The goal of the term paper project is the calculation of major parameters of effectiveness of the investment project (IP) for management of passenger traffic routes.
The new route must operate in parallel to the existing standard municipal route in the route taxi mode. Ten stop stations (SS) are arranged along the existing route line.
To identify the operation parameters of the route to be open, the tabular and and documentary analyses of performance of the existing route were conducted. As a result of tabular analyses, the data on passenger exchange at the existing stop stations were obtained. The documentary analyses enabled to collect information about daily volumes of active-route traffic on weekdays, while the visual analyses enabled to collect data on coefficients of irregularities of traffic volumes in a specified direction. The time of investigation is set, depending on a particular task.
The same-direction passengers were interviewed to assess their readiness to make use of the route taxi services and, as a result, there was identified the apparent passenger structure as part of the general volume of traffic in the direction, depending on the passengers’ travel range.
The term paper project identifies a part of passengers recognized as potential clients of route taxis, calculates passenger carriage incomes, technical and operational parameters of route taxi performance for minibuses of two models, cost of investment project implementation for both options, parameters of investment effectiveness in respect of each minibus model.
Various alternative correspondence matrices can be applied to the known values of departure and arrival capacity of stop stations (SS), each of which will stipulate the appropriate value of the volume of carriage by route taxi. In this connection, this chapter will be addressed to the issue of processing the results of investigation of regular-route passenger exchange and choosing a specific value of carriage volume in respect of a route taxi to reduce a degree of risks as regards this investment project.
With the route having ten SS, the total number of correspondences on this route is equal to forty-five, which makes the calculations too labor-intensive. To shorten a set of potential options of the correspondence matrix pertaining to the active route, which conform to the data on exchange of passengers at stop stations, the stop stations should be combined so that their number can be reduced. The new alternative route consists of five SS.
The purpose of this and next subchapter of the term paper project is to identify an option of the correspondence matrix that would minimize (or maximize, as applied to subchapter 1.3) the number of passengers accepting the route taxi services.
Used as a set of constraints are the equations describing relations between the correspondence values and SS departure and arrival capacities as applied to the route to be transformed. The base sets of constraints described in subchapters 1.2 and 1.3 differ from each other, since they derive diverse correspondences as free variables for the purpose of reduction of a number of iterations at the stage of calculation of Qmin or Qmax. The Qmax resulting value is the maximum potential volume of carriage, as applied to a given passenger stream exchange distribution.
The major risk associated with the implementation of this investment project is a failure to attain the scheduled volume of traffic. Subject to a sufficiently high degree of reliability of the source data, the main reasons for such a failure would be:
— unknown character of distribution of correspondences, which leads to a situation where the actual volume of carriage (Qф) would be somehow distributed over the interval between Qmin and Qmax inclusive;
— availability of other investors in this particular sphere who could establish their own routes that would match the route under review either partially or in full.
To assess likeliness of the risk of non-attainment of scheduled volume of traffic Pq (event q), one should assess likeliness of establishment of other route Pm (event m) and likeliness Ph of the situation where the actual volume of traffic (carriage) would be lower than scheduled volume Qп, to be chosen within the preset limits [Qmin, Qmax] (event h).
Owing to the fact that the establishment of another route will be bound to result in a lower volume of traffic on the new route, the likeliness of non-attainment of the scheduled volume is assessed as the likeliness of combination of arbitrary independent events.
The second chapter of the term paper project is addressed to the calculation of estimated carriage incomes. To this end, the volume of traffic on the active route, the volume of carriage on the route to be open, the volume of incomes on the route should be calculated.
The third chapter is addressed to the issue of route traffic management. To solve the task, the passenger streams should be distributed between day hours and directions, and the route operational characteristics should be analyzed.
The fourth chapter calculates the project implementation cost.
Chapters five and six estimate the effectiveness and quality of the investment project.
When analyzing project investment qualities, special consideration should be given to the method of calculation of the project income part, as well as the source data, on which its calculation was based. In this particular case, the attention should be drawn to a degree of reliability of the source data, serving as the grounds for the calculation and prediction of the prospective market situation.
The net reduced profit parameter enables to make a conclusion as to profitability of the project, as well as to draw a comparison to make a choice between several investment projects. If the net reduced profit value is more than 0, the project favorable conclusion can be accepted. If the net reduced profit is less than 0 or equals it, the project must be declined. A high value of the net reduced income is indicative of a high prospectivity of the relevant project. On the other hand, the net reduced income does not allow to compare investment projects , involving substantially different volumes of funds to be invested. Any project involving a higher value of the net reduced profit can require several-fold higher investment funds than the project involving somewhat lower net reduced profit.